Arsenal vs Brighton: Prediction and Preview

Our Arsenal vs. Brighton prediction and analysis for Sunday’s match at the Emirates Stadium reflect our anticipation for this weekend’s Premier League action. Can the Gunners bounce back from last weekend’s loss to Aston Villa?

Brighton vs. Arsenal Stats: The Quick Hits

Based on 53.5% of data-driven simulations, the Opta supercomputer forecasts that Arsenal will defeat Brighton. Mikel Arteta’s team is leading this prediction.
But in all competitions, Arsenal has dropped its previous three home games against Brighton.

In his previous 11 games in all competitions at the Emirates Stadium, Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka has contributed to 13 goals, eight of which he has scored and five of which he has assisted on.

Preview of the Match

Following Liverpool’s tight victory over Arsenal at Aston Villa last weekend, who now lead the Premier League, Arsenal will be looking for a reaction when they visit Brighton & Hove Albion at Emirates Stadium on Sunday.

As Matchday 17 approaches, Mikel Arteta’s team is down one point on Liverpool at the top of the premier league after the Reds overcame Crystal Palace 2-1 despite behind by a goal. That match saw Mohamed Salah score his 200th goal for the Anfield team, while on Saturday, Arsenal suffered a 1-0 defeat at Villa Park at the hands of former manager Unai Emery. The game was decided by a goal in the seventh minute from John McGinn, however Arteta was once again upset with the referees when Kai Havertz’s late equalizer was disallowed for a handball.

Following Arsenal’s drop from first place in the league table, Arteta chose to “not comment,” seemingly drawing inspiration from José Mourinho’s post-match interview style when he was Chelsea’s manager. Nevertheless, the Gunners are still leading by a point from Villa, three points ahead of fourth-place Manchester City, six ahead of Tottenham, and a full ten points ahead of Newcastle. After a 1-1 draw with PSV on Tuesday, they also won the top spot in their Group B of the UEFA Champions League.

For Sunday’s kickoff at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal will still be without Jurriën Timber, Emile Smith Rowe, Thomas Partey, Takehiro Tomiyasu, and Fábio Vieira. Gabriel Martinelli may be out with a virus, but Arteta can always rely on Bukayo Saka. In his last 11 games at the Emirates Stadium across all competitions, the England winger has contributed to 13 goals, scoring eight and setting up five. He has only failed to register a goal involvement in one game during this run, and that was in October’s 5-0 victory against Sheffield United.

Brighton were held to an underwhelming 1-1 draw with Burnley in their last league outing as Simon Adingra’s 77th-minute strike cancelled out Wilson Odobert’s first-half opener at Amex Stadium on Saturday. Pascal Groß, who teed up Adingra’s equaliser, has been involved in five goals in his last four Premier League appearances (1G 4A), while only former Arsenal midfielder Mesut Özil (54) can better Groß’s 40 assists in the competition among German players.

Injury issues continue to pose a problem for Brighton’s lineup, with manager De Zerbi missing Solly March, former Arsenal striker Danny Welbeck, Julio Enciso, Tariq Lamptey, Pervis Estupiñán and Ansu Fati, while Adam Webster still needs to recover from a knock to return to partner England centre-back Lewis Dunk.

As the captain of Arsenal, Martin Ødegaard, has more Premier League goals (four, two goals, two assists) against Brighton than any other team, his defensive worries may be cause for concern. On Sunday, the 25-year-old Norwegian midfielder will also celebrate his birthday and try to become the first Gunner to score a birthday Premier League goal since Özil did so in October 2016 against Swansea City.

Arsenal vs Brighton Head-to-Head

When it comes to Brighton, who have won their past three trips to Emirates Stadium across all competitions, Arsenal supporters might wish to turn their backs on the team at this point. The only team they have lost more straight games at their north London home than Man City (seven between 2018 and 2023) is Arsenal.

Brighton has defeated Arsenal on the road four times out of seven meetings; this is the best win percentage (57%) of any English team visiting the Emirates since it debuted in 2006.

Only two of the previous ten Premier League encounters between Arsenal and Brighton (D3 L5) have ended with the home team winning; the Seagulls triumphed 2-1 at Amex Stadium in June 2020, while the Gunners triumphed 2-0 at the Emirates in May.

Arsenal’s Premier League title challenge was also brought to an end by a 3-0 loss in this same match at Emirates Stadium last season, which saw goals from Julio Enciso, Deniz Undav (now of Stuttgart), and Pervis Estupiñán. Arteta’s team’s 4-2 victory in the previous meeting at Amex Stadium in December offered little comfort to the north London team.

Although Arteta’s difficulties against the south coast club may be confusing, the Spaniard will find solace in the fact that Arsenal has won 12 of its past 12 home games across all competitions (W10 D2), scoring at least twice in 11 of those contests since a 3-0 setback to Brighton in May.

Before the unfortunate loss at Aston Villa, Arteta’s team won four straight league games against Luton Town, Wolves, Brentford, and Burnley. However, on Sunday, they will host Brighton, so goals are expected. In the last twenty Premier League games, De Zerbi’s team has conceded and scored in each of the previous 32. In addition to being their joint-longest run without a clean sheet (20 games between September 1947 and March 1948), it is also their longest scoring streak in league history.

Brighton’s defense is still a problem as they have given up the first goal in each of their last four Premier League games, which is their longest run of that kind since a run of six in February/March 2022. Despite winning Brentford and Nottingham Forest and drawing with Burnley, Brighton’s only loss in this recent run was a 3-2 loss to Chelsea.

In contrast, Arsenal is the only team in the Premier League this season to have fallen behind at any point in just six games. This sets them apart from their opponents. They have won four of those games (W2 D2) and have not lost any of their season’s games in which they have led (W11 D2).

Arsenal

Declan Rice: 81.1 (out of 100)
Oleksandr Zinchenko: 80.4
Martin Ødegaard: 76.4
Ben White: 74.2
Bukayo Saka: 73.5

Brighton

Pascal Groß: 78.0 (out of 100)
Evan Ferguson: 77.2
Billy Gilmour: 73.4
Jan Paul van Hecke: 70.6
João Pedro: 69.7