The truth behind Leicester City’s biggest Premier League fear

It’s good news for Enzo Maresca as City head up to the Premier League with Luton, Burnley, and Sheffield United’s struggles to survive potentially just a one-off

The Premier League’s three newly-promoted sides have all come straight back to where they came from, their spell in the spotlight of the big stage lasting just one season.

And, in truth, they’ve come down with a whimper too. Luton, the best of the bunch, only picked up 26 points, the lowest tally for an 18th-placed finisher in Premier League history. Nottingham Forest survived on 32 points, the lowest total of any surviving club.

It seems to be an ominous sign for Leicester City as they prepare to return to the Premier League. There is a financial gulf between the top tier and the Championship and this season has suggested it’s becoming more difficult to bridge.

“The gap is getting bigger and bigger,” former Brighton striker Glenn Murray said on BBC’s Final Score at the weekend. “The Premier League is such a dominant league, and I think (all three promoted clubs teams being relegated) will happen more and more often.”

However, Murray did add: “I think Leicester could possibly buck the trend next year. They obviously still have a really strong squad coming up from the Championship.”

Are more promoted clubs going straight back down?

Yes, but only just. Over the past five seasons, more than half of the promoted clubs have gone straight back down, with eight out of 15 failing to last more than a year in the Premier League.

As a rolling five-year average, it’s the highest the number has been for 15 years. But that means it’s only as difficult to stay up now as it would have been heading to the Premier League in 2010. It’s too early to say it’s never been more difficult for a promoted club.

In fact, there have been three seasons over the past 20 years where none of the promoted clubs have been relegated, and one of those was last year, when Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest stayed up. There was another of those seasons quite recently too, in 2018.

Are promoted clubs winning fewer points?

With 66 points between Luton, Burnley, and Sheffield United, it was comfortably the worst season of the past 20 years for the promoted clubs. And, actually, two of the worst three cumulative totals of the past two decades have been in the last three years, with Norwich, Watford, and Brentford only earning 91 points in 2021.

As a rolling five-year average, the cumulative points of the promoted clubs has just dipped to its lowest point in 20 years. But again, there’s not enough evidence to say it’s a trend. The points earned by promoted clubs, as shown by the chart, has been at a fairly consistent level for a while now.

How often do promoted clubs comfortably stay up?

Enzo Maresca said 90 per cent of promoted clubs are involved in relegation battles after they go up, but that is slightly disproved by the numbers. Over the past 20 years, 17 of the 60 teams to go up have earned 45 points or more, and so have been relatively comfortable in their survivals.

Ten teams over that period have actually finished in the top half, while eight have earned 50 points or more. Take a closer look and it’s particularly interesting that half of the 50-point clubs have come in the past six seasons.

Before this campaign, there were four years out of five where at least one newly-promoted club reached 50 points, from Wolves in 2019, to Sheffield United in 2020, then Leeds 2021, and then Fulham in 2023. It goes to show that there is no barrier to promoted sides enjoying very good seasons.

Does it make a difference where you finish in the Championship?

In short, do City have an advantage as the Championship winners? Sort of. Over the past 20 years, eight of the second-tier title holders have been relegated immediately. But that’s the same number for second-placed finishers too.

It seems it’s marginally more difficult for play-off winners to stay up. Eleven of the past 20 have gone straight back down.