This is an advantage that Leicester, Ipswich, and Leeds have over Southampton in the promotion race.

To capitalize on the small goal differential and maximize their chances of winning, Southampton has to increase their effectiveness in both areas.

Comparisons between championship attacking
The fact that Ipswich has scored 43 goals in 20 games, or 2.15 goals per game, makes them the most prolific offensive team in the division. According to Fbref, Kieran McKenna’s team has also notably outperformed its xG by a division-high total of 6.9.

Town has distributed the goals thus far in this season, with leading scorer Conor Chaplin just tied for seventh place with eight goals.

Leicester have also over-performed their xG by a total of 2.5, with Enzo Maresca’s men finding the net 38 times from 20 games. Similarly to Ipswich, the league leaders have also shared the goals around, with playmaker Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall the East Midlands outfit’s top scorer with six goals. Remarkably, when you consider the attacking options the Italian has at his disposal, such as Jamie Vardy, Patson Daka and Kelechi Iheanacho, the highest-scoring forward at the King Power is Vardy, with the same tally as the aforementioned midfielder.

The attacking prowess of Leeds is widely known; in addition to divisional standout Joel Piroe and the outstanding Georginio Rutter, wingers Crysencio Summerville and Dan James have contributed numerous goals.

This is a subject we have worked on extensively since, while Daniel James and Crystal Summerville are both excellent players, people have constantly criticized them for not scoring enough goals. But where are the finished products? In particular, they are supplying this phrase. Following Leeds’ 2-0 victory over Blackburn, Farke stated, “They are on a good path. They were really clinical and ice-cold finishes today.”

Leeds’ front four have an extraordinary tally of 48 goals and assists between them so far this campaign, with Summerville at the forefront with nine goals.

Armstrong is too dependent on Southampton.
Although Southampton has scored 32 goals so far this season, more than any of the top three, it begs the question of whether Russell Martin’s team is depending too much on Adam Armstrong.

With 12 goals under his belt, Armstrong, a former Blackburn player, is ranked second in the divisional standings, behind Sammie Szmodics, the current club talisman.

The 26-year-old is currently in a purple patch, with five of those strikes coming in his last six games, averaging a goal every 144 minutes and a conversion rate of 32%, as per BBC Sport.

Che Adams grabbed 22 goals in his last Championship season for Birmingham City, but this season, despite links back to the Premier League, the Leicester-born forward has looked far from his best. His goal at Watford on Saturday was the first he’d scored in three-and-a-half months, yet he remarkably stands second in the Saints’ scoring charts with four for the season, only taking 19 shots all campaign.

The Southampton defense is a source of worry.
Russell Martin will be a little concerned that his team has the weakest defense in the top four, conceding 28, which is equal to that of his former team Swansea and Stoke, who are in the bottom half, even though he can call upon high-profile defenders like Kyle Walker-Peters, Jan Bednarek, and Taylor Harwood-Bellis.

Compared to Ipswich’s 1.25 goals per game, the Saints have given up 1.4 goals on average. However, this is a stark contrast to Leeds and Leicester, who top the list of the teams with the fewest goals allowed per ninety minutes. At the moment, Enzo Maresca’s team has an incredible %, whereas Daniel Farke’s team is conceding one goal per ninety on average.

Southampton did concede almost a third of their goals in successive outings back in September, when Enzo Maresca’s side and Sunderland put nine in total past them. They have since recorded all four of their clean sheets this season, but Gavin Bazunu still holds the worst save percentage in the division with a total of 62%.

The disparity in goals is a small worry.
Southampton is contending for a top-two spot. With 26 games remaining in the season, they are still in the running for automatic promotion, despite currently being the outsider in the league table. Even while it’s a small problem right now, just think of how terrible it would be to miss out on the Premier League because of it. Southampton has to keep chipping away at that goal differential as insurance in case things get tight.

This season’s promotion competition between Leeds and Southampton and Leicester and Ipswich looks to be incredible. Leeds is currently matching many of the top-two’s metrics following a careless start.

Southampton still has some work ahead of them. Tightening up at one end and letting loose at the other will be necessary to address that goal differential. In both cases, the Saints would begin to push the elevated bar set by the pack leaders.