Newcastle vs AC Milan: Prediction and Preview

Newcastle and AC Milan face off in a must-win UEFA Champions League clash for both sides – here we look ahead to the game with our prediction and preview. Can the Magpies snatch a place in the knockout stage or will Stefano Pioli’s side be victorious?

Newcastle United is predicted by the Opta supercomputer to defeat Milan, as evidenced by the hosts’ 54.9% of data-driven simulations in their UEFA Champions League matchup.
Newcastle has never lost back-to-back games at St. James’ Park in a major European competition, despite their most recent Champions League home loss to Borussia Dortmund by a score of 1-0.
Milan has also only triumphed once in 21 big European competition games played in England (D7 L13

Match Preview

It is last-chance saloon for Newcastle United and Milan in this season’s UEFA Champions League as both require victory at St James’ Park on Wednesday to have any chance of leapfrogging Paris Saint-Germain and progressing to the knockout stage alongside Borussia Dortmund from Group F.

Eddie Howe’s side were dealt a gut-wrenching blow for their top-two hopes in the group on Matchday 5 as Kylian Mbappé’s controversial 98th-minute penalty snatched a crucial point for PSG, cancelling out Alexander Isak’s 24th-minute opener at Parc des Princes.

The injury-hit Magpies will hope to regroup for a seismic European clash in which Milan, who are level on five points with Newcastle, also need to leave England with a victory to have any chance of making the last 16 after another unconvincing performance on MD5. Stefano Pioli’s side were outclassed in a 3-1 defeat at San Siro as Dortmund booked their place in the next round of the competition after goals for Jamie Bynoe-Gittens and Karim Adeyemi proved Samuel Chukwueze’s first-half response to Marco Reus’ penalty-kick opener redundant.

Both Newcastle and Milan could leapfrog PSG on the final matchday, although the two teams are also reliant on Luis Enrique’s Ligue 1 champions not winning against Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park. A victory for Howe’s side would secure second if PSG lose or draw, with Newcastle boasting a better head-to-head record after the 4-1 hammering at St. James’ Park on MD2. Milan must win to progress and hope Dortmund triumph in Germany as PSG would qualify due to their head-to-head decider if both teams are level on points. An unwanted draw would send the Rossoneri out and Newcastle into the UEFA Europa League, to.

Newcastle’s 4-1 Premier League loss at Tottenham on Sunday made for less than ideal preparations for Wednesday’s pivotal European match. This was on top of their 3-0 Goodison Park loss to Everton on Thursday. At Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Howe did at least welcome Callum Wilson and Sean Longstaff back to the bench, but he still does not have Harvey Barnes, Joe Willock, Sven Botman, Elliot Anderson, Dan Burn, Jacob Murphy, Nick Pope, and Sandro Tonali.

Newcastle goalkeeper Pope is expected to be out for up to four months, which is a cruel blow having performed so well heading into the Champions League’s final matchday. The former Burnley man conceded just five goals from an expected goals (xG) on target conceded total of 9.9, preventing just under five goals (+4.9) based on the quality of shots on target faced – the most of any goalkeeper in the competition after MD5.

Milan is also not playing well. In Saturday’s Serie A match, Pioli’s team lost 3-2 to Atalanta due to a last-minute goal from Luis Muriel, despite goals from Olivier Giroud and Luka Jovic. Though Malick Thiaw, Marco Pellegrino, Marco Sportiello, Noah Okafor, Pierre Kalulu, and Simon Kjaer are probably out, Rafael Leão is believed to be fit to play at St. James’ Park.